Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.