A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
